Another ‘distraction’ for the betting public is the myriad proposition bets that are available during Super Bowl Week. Proposition bets range from the sublime to the ridiculous but there are some solid football-related ‘props’ the learned gambler can make hay with. For every prop related to what Madonna may be wearing (or not wearing), there is a prop related to player performance. For example, how many passing yards NY Giants QB Eli Manning will have in the game? In this instance, the yardage is 315.5. You can wager $125 to win $100 if you think he will go over that number or wager $105 that he will go under that number. If you think the Giants are going to win the game with a balanced attack on offense, you may side with the ‘Under’ total here. If you think they will be behind most of the game and will be playing catch up for most of the game, you’re likely to take the ‘Over’. One prop we like is how many rushing yards Manning will have. The number is a very low 3.5 yards. You have to wager $125 to win $100 but we feel Manning will top that total.

In the running game, we like RB Brandon Jacobs to go Over the listed 7.5 attempts. Jacobs has ceded the starting duties to RB Ahmad Bradshaw but New York likes to use Jacobs in short yardage (despite his mediocre success) situations. They also use him to wear down the defense with his 260 lb. frame.

In the receiving game, we’ll take the Under on New England TE Rob Gronkowski’s receiving yards. The number is 82.5 and we feel his ankle injury is fairly serious. One good shot on it and he will probably be out of the game. He will also lose his ability to drive and plant and most of his receptions will be of the shorter variety. On the other hand, we like NE TE Aaron Hernandez to go Over his assigned number of receiving yards, 64.5. His best asset is speed and we feel he will pick up big chunks of yardage. He has topped 100+ yards in receiving several times in the past two years and if Gronkowski is limited, Brady will have no qualms about looking in his direction. Another play we like is on Patriot WR-DB Julian Edelman. He has played a lot on defense in recent weeks but still sees time on offense. The number on his total receptions is .5. We feel he will definitely catch at least one pass during this game as he is an effective outlet pass for Brady.

If you look at all of the different props available, you’re definitely going to find some numbers you feel very comfortable with. Tackles, interceptions, total FGs and picking the first player to score are all included in the long list of props. Our advice is to eschew all the silly props (how long will it take Kelly Clarkson to sing the National Anthem, for example) and stick with the solid football props. Use your knowledge of the two teams and who you think will win to assist you in these selections.

As a reminder, here are the plays we are interested in (available at bodog.ca)

- Manning to rush for Over 3.5 yards.
- Jacobs to go Over 7.5 rushing attempts.
- Gronkowski to go Under 82.5 yards.
- Hernandez to go Over 64.5 yards.
- Edelman to go Over .5 catch.

Good luck to all and enjoy the game and all the different props available.

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Point Spread: Patriots -3
Total: 55

Gronkowski's ankle and whether he'll be able to play the full game will be an important factor.

The Giants offense has been really clicking in the last month as they are averaging 28 points-per-game over their last five games, all victories. Manning is playing the QB position better than any other player right now and we expect him to have a good game against the league’s 31st-ranked defense. The Patriots have been able to pare 100 yards-per-game off their passing defense during the playoffs but they have faced two running teams so far. Manning is making plays downfield and isn’t averse to throwing short when needed (8-1 TD-INT ratio in playoffs). All three of New York’s top WRs are healthy and all three can make plays. The Pats have been using WR-PR Julian Edelman in coverage and while the Ravens didn’t attempt to exploit that mismatch look for Manning to take advantage. The return to health of RB Ahmad Bradshaw has also sparked the 32nd-ranked run game of the Giants. He and fellow RB Brandon Jacobs are both averaging better than 4.0 yards-per-carry and look for New York to try and be balanced on offense. New England’s run defense has been up and down but they will have to be focused against this running game as the Giants will continue to run the ball if they have success early. Manning was sacked six times last week but that was against the ferocious pass rush of the 49ers. DE Mark Anderson led New England with 10 sacks this year and they miss the contributions of DE Andre Carter (IR).

New England had scored 27+ points in their past nine games (all wins) before struggling last week. Brady threw two interceptions and no TDs last week as he was stymied by the Ravens defense. He was also subpar vs. the Steelers and the Giants earlier this season. Brady has posted huge numbers this season (including 6 TD passes vs. Denver in the divisional round) but has had trouble with very good defenses. New York didn’t have a great year defensively in 2011 but have allowed only 67 points over their past five games as they have really rounded into form. Like their running game, the Giants improved play on defense is health related. Look for New York to get good pressure on Brady by rushing only four players. Brady has always struggled with an intense pass rush and is especially uncomfortable when he gets pressure inside. To counter this, look for New England to run some draws, screens and for Brady to throw quick outs and slants. The Patriots have two great TEs in Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski but Gronkowski is battling an ankle injury. These two players usually have a big advantage against opposing defenses but they were kept in check last week. WR Wes Welker usually plays in the slot and led the NFL with 122 catches this season. The Patriots generally have an aversion to running the ball even when they are successful at it. We expect the Giants to control the running game and force Brady to throw the ball for most of the game.

ATS Pick

The Giants are currently on a 5-0 SU/ATS run and needed to win their last two regular-season games just to qualify for the playoffs. Their defense has neutralized some very good offenses (Cowboys, Falcons, and Packers) during the streak and we expect them to get after Brady. Offensively, the Giants are peaking as well. Manning has elevated his play and has joined the ranks of the elite QBs in the NFL. He is also playing better than Brady right now and we expect him to help lead the Giants to a SU victory. New England is 1-5 ATS in their last six matchups with New York and 1-7 ATS in their last eight playoff games.
Take the Giants +3 at Bodog.

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Brady will have to play better for any chance of the Super Bowl going over the total.

- New York is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.
- The Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- New York is 8-1 ATS in their last nine playoff games, since 2006.
- The Giants are 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 encounters with AFC opponents.
- New York is 9-3 ATS after allowing 20 points or less in their previous game.
- The Giants are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of three points or less.
- New York has produced 2 overs and 8 unders in their last 10 playoff games, since 2005.
- The Giants have recorded 1 over and 5 unders in their past six games.
- New England is 1-5 ATS in their last six matchups with New York.
- The Patriots are 1-7 ATS in their last eight playoff games.
- New England is 11-1-1 ATS as a favorite of seven points or less vs. NFC opponents.
- The Patriots have produced 9 overs and 19 unders in their last 28 playoff games, since 1994.
- New England is 6-3 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 23 points or less in their previous game.
- The Patriots have recorded 7 overs and 1 under in their last eight games.
- New England is 6-2 ATS following a SU win of three points or less.
- The last five matchups in this series has produced 1 over and 4 unders.

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Point Spread: Patriots -7
Total Line: 50.5

Ravens pass rush has been absent in recent games.

The Ravens want to run the ball behind RB Ray Rice but he had tough sledding against the Texans last week (21 carries, 60 yards). The Patriots front seven isn’t nearly as good as Houston’s but they bottled up the Broncos’ gimmick offense very well last week. They have to be wary of Rice when he is a receiver as well though he didn’t fare well at that last week either (4 catches for 20 yards). Baltimore will test this secondary deep with rookie WR Torrey Smith but we feel QB Joe Flacco will be looking to WR Anquan Boldin and TEs Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson more frequently. The Patriots ranked 31st vs. the pass this season but are bolstered by the return of SS Patrick Chung from injury. Flacco was average last week (14-27, 176 yards, 2 TDs) and historically hasn’t played his best ball on the road. He was also sacked five times. New England’s defense wasn’t tested last week by the unconventional Denver offense but they must contain Rice to have a real chance at stopping this offense.

New England will be looking to pass early and often this week as they pay lip service to the run. TE Aaron Hernandez was actually the leading ballcarrier last week (5-61). The Ravens ranked 2nd in run defense this season and we expect them to give a better performance in this area than they did last week (131 rushing yards allowed). However, stopping New England’s ground game isn’t the issue. Brady is coming off one of the best performances of his career and he is very focused on getting his team back to the Super Bowl. We expect Hernandez and fellow TE Rob Gronkowski to pose a lot of problems for a defense that isn’t known to have great cover LBs. ILB Ray Lewis is a sure-fire Hall of Famer and maybe the best to ever play the position but he will be outmatched if he has to play in coverage against this offense. WR Wes Welker will command attention and Brady isn’t shy about spreading the ball around. There may even be a WR Chad Ochocinco sighting in this game. Baltimore totalled zero sacks last week and if OLB Terrell Suggs isn’t getting consistent pressure, there is no pass rush. Look for New England to give LT Matt Light help if he has trouble with Suggs early on.

ATS Pick

Baltimore was 9-0 SU at home this season but only 4-4 SU/ATS on the road. They lost to some bad teams and just don’t play well away from M&T Bank Stadium. New England, on the other hand, is playing very well (averaging 37.3 points-per-game during their winning streak) on both sides of the ball. As bad as the Pats have been in giving up yardage, they ranked 15th in scoring defense this season. New England also has a big edge in special teams play and no one is better than HC Bill Belichick at drawing up schemes and then adjusting them during the game. This number has been coming down and we feel very good in laying the points and going with a very determined and focused group of Patriots.
Take the Patriots

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The 49ers beat the NY Giants earlier this season at Candlestick Park.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -9

- Baltimore is 1-4-1 ATS in their last six visits to New England.
- The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
- Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog of 7+ points.
- The Ravens have produced 2 overs and 5 unders in their last seven games.
- Baltimore is 4-10 ATS after allowing 13 points or less in their previous game.
- The Ravens have recorded 3 overs and 7 unders in their last 10 playoff games.
- Baltimore is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 visits to AFC East opponents.
- New England is 1-6 ATS in their last seven playoff games.
- The Patriots are 6-1-1 ATS after scoring 40+ points in their previous game.
- New England is 4-9 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games.
- The Patriots are 7-2 ATS following a double-digit SU win.
- New England has produced 7 overs in their last seven games.
- The Patriots have recorded 4 overs and 9 unders in their last 13 home playoff games.
- New England is 9-3 ATS after allowing 10 points or less in their previous game.

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -2.5

- New York is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 playoff games, since 2000.
- The Giants are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 matchups with NFC West opponents.
- New York is 9-0 ATS following a SU win as an underdog vs. an opponent coming off a SU win as an underdog.
- The Giants are 5-1 ATS after scoring 35+ points vs. an opponent coming off back-to-back SU wins.
- New York is 12-2 ATS on the road following back-to-back SU/ATS wins.
- The Giants have produced 6 overs and 3 unders on the road this season
- New York has recorded 2 overs and 6 unders in their last eight playoff games.
- San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in their last six matchups with New York.
- The 49ers are 13-3-1 ATS this season.
- San Francisco is 9-2 ATS as a home favorite of 2+ points following a SU win as an underdog.
- The 49ers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite.
- San Francisco is 6-3-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games.
- The 49ers have produced 4 overs and 8 unders in their last 12 games.
- San Francisco is 3-8-1 ATS afters coring 30+ points in their previous game.

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Point Spread: Packers -7.5
Total: 53

The Packers offense will need to run the ball against the Giants.

The Giants re-discovered their running game last week, totalling 177 yards on the ground in their big win over the Falcons. They didn’t run the ball well this season but a healthy RB Ahmad Bradshaw helps their ground game. QB Eli Manning threw for 347 yards and three scores in the first matchup but also threw an interception. That’s been a familiar script for Green Bay: give up a ton of yards and then pick off a pass (they had 31 on the year). WRs Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and a healthy Mario Manningham give Manning a lot of targets to throw to. And he should have time to throw; the Packers amassed only five sacks in their last four games. They had only 29 on the year and Manning has shown he can dissect a defense if given time to throw. Look for the Giants to try and achieve the balance they had last week. Manning will be throwing the ball but Bradshaw and RB Brandon Jacobs will get a lot of carries as well.

Green Bay averaged 35 points-per-game this year and only lost once. QB Aaron Rodgers (45-6 TD/INT) had an MVP-type year and he will be attacking this defense. He threw for 369 yards and four scores in the first matchup and he will be looking to pick them apart again. However, his O-line has been hurting especially at the OT spots. LT Chad Clifton will see his most significant action since October 9th and has to deal with DE Jason Pierre-Paul and his 16.5 sacks. DEs Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora are also healthy and New York will drop former DE and current OLB Mathias Kiwanuka onto the line in obvious passing situations with the three DEs. Green Bay wasn’t very effective running the ball this season but hope to have a healthy RB James Starks back in the lineup. New York bottled up Atlanta’s ground game last week and should have success in that area this week.

ATS Pick

These teams played a very entertaining game six weeks ago and we expect another close game. We feel both QBs will have success but we expect Rodgers to have to deal with a ferocious pass rush. Green Bay ranked last in past defense because they haven’t overcome the loss of All-Pro FS Nick Collins and they can’t muster a consistent pass rush. Throw in the Giants ability to run the ball and we feel this number is just too high. We’ll side with a Giants team that appears to be peaking at the right time.
Take the Giants

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Point Spread: Patriots -13.5
Total Line: 50

Tom Brady will have to be at his best to make up for his team's weak defense.

Broncos QB Tim Tebow is coming off the biggest game of his short career as he threw for 316 yards on only 10 completions last week. He didn’t throw any interceptions and didn’t throw any in the first matchup between these teams. Tebow likes to throw left and that is where CB Kyle Arrington (team-leading 88 tackles and 7 picks) plays. Tebow has to watch for Arrington jumping routes. WR Demaryius Thomas caught four passes for 204 yards and the game-winning score last week and also had seven catches for 116 yards in the first meeting. Tebow will look his way early and often and his size and speed will give this defense trouble. WR Eric Decker (knee) isn’t expected to play meaning WRs Eddie Royal and Matthew Willis have to step up. Denver rushed for 167 yards in the 1st quarter of the earlier game and they will look to duplicate that type of success this week. Tebow appears to be becoming a more judicious runner and RBs Willis McGahee and Lance Ball form a solid duo. The Patriots pass defense ranked 31st this season but they did force 34 TOs. They also lack a dynamic pass rush but DE Mark Anderson did post 10 sacks in a reserve role.

Patriots QB Tom Brady threw for 5,235 yards this season, shattering the old mark of Dan Marino but falling short of Drew Brees’ new record of 5,476. His 39 TD passes were his second-best total for a season. What these numbers mean is that the Broncos secondary will have their hands full. The unit’s play has gone down since S Brian Dawkins went down and he’s not expected to play this week. TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez and WR Wes Welker have been dynamite this season and Brady will throw to whichever one is open. Pittsburgh had success earlier this year jamming them at the line of scrimmage and we think Denver will try to do the same this week. Rookie OLB Von Miller was playing with one hand in the first matchup but is better now. With DE Elvis Dumervil on the other side, Denver should have a good pass rush to bother Brady. New England averaged 110 yards-per-game on the ground this season and prefers to move the ball through the air.

ATS Pick

New England usually has a big advantage in their games as they usually intimidate their opponents with their high-scoring offense. Don’t look for Denver to fall into that category as they believe they can win this game. They led 16-7 in the first matchup before TOs turned the game around and took them out of their comfort zone. Tebow should be able to make plays against this defense and we feel they will have success on the ground as well. The Patriots are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games as a double-digit favorite and have lost their last three playoff games. Brady will put up numbers but we feel the Broncos can keep the score close with their pass rush, running game and with a few deep shots sprinkled in.
Take the Broncos

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The Baltimore Ravens are 9-1 ATS following a week of rest.

New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers
Line: Saints -3.5

- New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in their last six visits to San Francisco.
- The Saints are 9-0 SU/ATS in their past nine games.
- New Orleans is 8-1 ATS as a road favorite of five points or less following a SU win.
- The Saints are 8-0 ATS after allowing 28+ points in their previous game.
- New Orleans is 6-3 ATS following back-to-back home games.
- San Francisco is 12-3-1 ATS this season but are only 3-3 ATS in their last six games.
- The 49ers are 2-9-1 ATS after scoring 28+ points in their previous game.
- San Francisco is 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 playoff games.
- The 49ers have produced 3 overs and 8 unders in their last 11 games.
- San Francisco is 11-1-2 ATS after allowing 27+ points in their previous game.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -13.5

- Denver is 5-1 ATS as a road underdog this season.
- The Broncos are 3-14-1 ATS after scoring 29+ points in their previous game.
- Denver is 3-6 ATS after allowing 23+ points in their previous game.
- The Broncos have produced 4 overs and 1 under in their last five playoff games.
- Denver is 4-1 ATS following a SU win as an underdog.
- New England is 0-6 ATS in their last six playoff games.
- The Patriots are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as a double-digit favorite.
- New England is 2-7 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games.
- The Patriots are 10-4 ATS following a matchup with the Bills.
- New England is 9-3-1 ATS following a SU win of 20+ points.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -9

- Houston is 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. Baltimore.
- The Texans are 10-5-2 ATS this season.
- Houston is 4-0-1 ATS this season after scoring 30+ points in their previous game.
- The Texans are 4-1-1 ATS this season following a double-digit SU win.
- Houston is 4-1 ATS as underdogs of 8+ points vs. an opponent coming off back-to-back SU wins.
- Baltimore has produced 3 overs and 6 unders in their last nine playoff games.
- The Ravens are 9-1 ATS following a week of rest.
- Baltimore is 2-5 ATS in their last seven matchups with AFC South opponents.
- The Ravens are 3-6 ATS after allowing 16 points or less in their previous game.
- Baltimore is 6-1 ATS following an encounter with Cincinnati.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -9

- New York is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 playoff games, since 2000.
- The Giants are 11-2 ATS on the road following back-to-back SU/ATS wins.
- New York is 5-0 ATS as an underdog of 9+ points.
- The Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.
- New York is 5-1 ATS following a double-digit SU win.
- Green Bay is 11-5 ATS this season and 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games.
- The Packers are 6-3 ATS in their last nine playoff games.
- Green Bay is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite.
- The Packers have recorded 11 overs and 2 unders in their last 13 home games.
- Green Bay is 4-9 ATS after a matchup with Detroit.

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Point Spread: Steelers -9
Total: 34

The Steelers defense should be able to shut down the Broncos' running game.

The Steelers’ offense has struggled in recent weeks as they have scored 14 points or less in four of their past six games. Things got even tougher after last week’s game as RB Rashard Mendenhall was lost for the year with a knee injury. QB Ben Roethlisberger is dealing with an injured ankle and admitted to being only 70%. He will be in the shotgun on most passing downs but has been sacked at a 2-1 rate in the shotgun as opposed to being under center. Rookie OLB Von Miller and DE Elvis Dumervil have combined for 21 sacks this season and they face an O-line that can have their troubles in pass protection. Denver’s pass defense has been pretty good for the most part this year but they have had issues in run defense. RB Isaac Redman will be the main ballcarrier for the Steelers and will have a lot on his shoulders for the first time in his career. With Roethlisberger’s limited mobility, look for a lot of quick throws to his speedy wideouts in the hope they can make plays.

Denver has averaged 17 points-per-game over their past eight games but that includes a 35-point outing vs. the Vikings. During their current losing streak, it is only 13 points. QB Tim Tebow has really struggled as of late, throwing only one TD and four picks in the last three games. He has also been sacked 10 times during that span. Pittsburgh racked up only 35 sacks this year but still finished No.1 in total defense. They are a well-coached, disciplined group and won’t be confused by the read option offense of the Broncos. RB Willis McGahee had a career rebirth (1,199 yards, 4 TDs) this season and leads the No.1 rushing unit in the league. Denver hopes to run the ball consistently and not force Tebow to win the game with his arm. Tebow had a terrible game last week (6-22 passes completed) and has regressed in the passing game. Pittsburgh DC Dick LeBeau will have a game plan drawn up to confuse the young signal caller and expect many different zone blitzes. OLBs James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley have each totalled nine sacks this season and expect them to harass Tebow. The loss of G Chris Kuper will also affect the O-line in a negative way.

ATS Pick

This game features two offenses that are really struggling. Denver tallied three points last week and now faces the No.1 defense in the league. Pittsburgh’s offense has had issues due to Roethlisberger’s injury and is now without Mendenhall. Both of these teams hope to rely on their defenses in this contest and we see a low-scoring game as a result.
Take the Under

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The Saints are 8-0 ATS and straight up in their last 8 games.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
Line: Texans -3

- Cincinnati is 1-5-2 ATS in their last eight games.
- The Bengals are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog.
- Cincinnati is 0-4 ATS in their last four matchups with Houston.
- The Bengals are 8-4 ATS after scoring 16 points or less in their previous game.
- Cincinnati is 3-9-1 ATS after allowing 24+ points in their previous game.
- The Bengals are 2-6 ATS after a matchup with the Ravens.
- Houston is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite.
- The Texans are 3-7-1 ATS after scoring 22 points or less in their previous game.
- Houston is 2-6 ATS following a SU loss at home.
- The Texans have produced 1 over and 7 unders at home this season.
- Houston has recorded 3 overs and 7 unders in non-divisional encounters this year.
- The Texans are 6-2-2 ATS in their past 10 games but 0-2-1 ATS in their past three outings.

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -11

- Detroit is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
- The Lions are 8-1 ATS as double-digit underdogs vs. a non-divisional opponent coming off a double-digit SU win.
- Detroit has produced 11 overs, 2 unders and 1 push in their last 14 road games.
- The Lions are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a SU loss as a favorite.
- Detroit has recorded 13 overs, 5 unders and 1 push in their last 19 non-divisional encounters.
- New Orleans is 8-0 SU/ATS in their last eight games.
- The Saints are 8-2 ATS following a SU win of 21+ points.
- New Orleans has produced 14 overs and 6 unders in their last 20 non-divisional contests.
- The Saints are 8-1 ATS as a favorite of 7+ points this season.
- New Orleans is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 playoff games, since 1990.

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants
Line: Giants -3

- Atlanta is 6-3-2 ATS in their last 11 games.
- The Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last seven matchups with the Giants.
- Atlanta is 1-5 ATS following a double-digit SU win.
- The Falcons have produced 8 overs, 4 unders and 1 push in their last 13 road games.
- Atlanta is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 playoff games.
- New York is 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite.
- The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six playoff games, since 2006.
- New York is 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
- The Giants have recorded 9 overs and 3 unders in their last 12 non-divisional encounters.
- New York is 8-4 ATS following a matchup with Dallas.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
Line: Steelers -9

- Pittsburgh is 2-6 ATS on the road this year.
- The Steelers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 playoff games, since 2005.
- Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS after scoring 14 points or less vs. an opponent coming off back-to-back SU losses.
- The Steelers have produced 6 unders in their last six games.
- Pittsburgh is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite.
- Denver is 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 home games, since 2008.
- The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff games, since 2000.
- Denver is 12-5 ATS as a non-divisional home underdog of 3+ points but 1-2 ATS this year.
- The Broncos have recorded 13 overs and 5 unders in their last 18 home games.
- Denver is 2-6 ATS following a matchup with Kansas City.

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