Betting Odds
Point Spread: Packers -7.5
Total: 53
The Packers offense will need to run the ball against the Giants.
The Giants re-discovered their running game last week, totalling 177 yards on the ground in their big win over the Falcons. They didn’t run the ball well this season but a healthy RB Ahmad Bradshaw helps their ground game. QB Eli Manning threw for 347 yards and three scores in the first matchup but also threw an interception. That’s been a familiar script for Green Bay: give up a ton of yards and then pick off a pass (they had 31 on the year). WRs Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and a healthy Mario Manningham give Manning a lot of targets to throw to. And he should have time to throw; the Packers amassed only five sacks in their last four games. They had only 29 on the year and Manning has shown he can dissect a defense if given time to throw. Look for the Giants to try and achieve the balance they had last week. Manning will be throwing the ball but Bradshaw and RB Brandon Jacobs will get a lot of carries as well.
Green Bay averaged 35 points-per-game this year and only lost once. QB Aaron Rodgers (45-6 TD/INT) had an MVP-type year and he will be attacking this defense. He threw for 369 yards and four scores in the first matchup and he will be looking to pick them apart again. However, his O-line has been hurting especially at the OT spots. LT Chad Clifton will see his most significant action since October 9th and has to deal with DE Jason Pierre-Paul and his 16.5 sacks. DEs Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora are also healthy and New York will drop former DE and current OLB Mathias Kiwanuka onto the line in obvious passing situations with the three DEs. Green Bay wasn’t very effective running the ball this season but hope to have a healthy RB James Starks back in the lineup. New York bottled up Atlanta’s ground game last week and should have success in that area this week.
ATS Pick
These teams played a very entertaining game six weeks ago and we expect another close game. We feel both QBs will have success but we expect Rodgers to have to deal with a ferocious pass rush. Green Bay ranked last in past defense because they haven’t overcome the loss of All-Pro FS Nick Collins and they can’t muster a consistent pass rush. Throw in the Giants ability to run the ball and we feel this number is just too high. We’ll side with a Giants team that appears to be peaking at the right time.
Take the Giants
