Betting Odds
Point Spread: Dolphins -3
Total: 45.5
Reggie Bush may be able to exploit the Eagles defense.
The Eagles expect to get QB Michael Vick back for this game after he missed the last three with broken ribs. Still, Vick has committed 14 TOs in the nine games he has played in. WR DeSean Jackson has become a huge headache for the team and WR Jeremy Maclin is still out. Miami’s defense has allowed 11 points per game over the last five weeks (4 wins, 1 loss by 1 point) and is becoming stout against the run and pass. RB LeSean McCoy is by far the best offensive weapon Philly has but has been chronically underused in recent weeks. The Dolphins pass rush has also improved and Vick has been hit with regularity this season.
Miami’s offense isn’t the prettiest in the league but they have been effective (28 points per game in last five games). RB Reggie Bush has been very effective on the ground and is third on the team in receptions. Rookie RB Daniel Thomas will also get opportunities against the suspect middle of this defense. QB Matt Moore has shown real progression throughout the season and has started to develop good chemistry with WR Brandon Marshall. He also does a good job of spreading the ball around to several receivers. The Eagles much-ballyhooed secondary hasn’t stood out and they are particularly vulnerable at the safety spot. Miami does have to account for DEs Jason Babin (12 sacks) and Trent Cole (6 sacks).
ATS Pick
Both teams are 4-8 this season but Miami is playing at a level Philadelphia hasn’t reached all season. The Dolphins defense has been especially stingy and Vick will have issues with his timing. The Dolphins should also be able to sustain some drives with their improved running attack and Moore’s improved decision making. Miami is 6-0 ATS over their past six games while the Eagles are 3-8 ATS in their last 11.
Take the Dolphins -3 at Bodog
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