Betting Odds
Matt Cassel has improved his play in recent games.
Point Spread: Chargers -3.5
Total Line: 44
San Diego saw their three-game winning streak end with a 27-21 defeat at the hands of the New York Jets last week. Kansas City won their third-straight last Sunday with a 28-0 pasting of Oakland. The Chargers eked out a 20-17 victory in the Week 3 matchup between these clubs.
The Chargers have enjoyed better balance this season than in previous years as RBs Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert have both contributed. However, the offense has been held back by QB Philip Rivers, who has a 7-9 TD/Ratio and has also lost two fumbles. That’s 11 TOs in only six games. The Chiefs are coming off a six-pick effort against Oakland and have played much better than they did in the first month of the season. TE Antonio Gates returned last week and immediately made an impact. Kansas City has to focus on him first as Rivers just hasn’t done a good job of connecting with his wideouts. Rivers has been sacked 14 times this year and the Chiefs need someone other than OLB Tamba Hali (4 of team’s 6 sacks) to get pressure.
Kansas City is getting a lot more out of RB Jackie Battle (5.2 yards-per-rush) than they ever could have envisioned. He’s taken over the starting spot and helped ease the burden off of QB Matt Cassel. The Chargers’ run defense hasn’t been up to their usual standards and look for the Chiefs to run the ball early. Cassel (8-7 TD/INT ratio) has played better during the winning streak but needs WR Dwayne Bowe to step up. San Diego has had Bowe’s number (2 catches, 16 yards in two meetings in 2010) during his career and he needs to produce in this matchup. KC’s pass blocking has been better than expected while San Diego has mustered only 10 sacks this year.
ATS Pick
Both of these teams have won three of their past four games. San Diego has yet to beat a team with a winning record and was very ordinary in their losses to the Patriots and Jets. Kansas City looks like a different team from the one that was outscored 89-10 in their first two games. The Chiefs are 9-3 ATS in the past 12 games hosting this matchup and we feel they will do enough to get the cover at home.
Take the Chiefs
