Betting Odds
Point Spread: 49ers -4
Total: 38.5
Fitzgerald may have a big game versus the 49ers beat up corners.
The 49ers ran the ball 42 times in the first meeting but only averaged 3.3 yards-per-carry. Other than the 49ers game, the Cardinals have allowed an average of only 14 points-per-game over their last five. Now that the division has been won, don’t look for San Francisco to open up the offense and allow QB Alex Smith to get into bad habits. They will try to run the ball like they did in the first matchup. Smith has a 15-5 TD/INT ratio and has been one of the biggest surprises in the league. WR Michael Crabtree caught seven passes for 120 yards in the earlier encounter and figures to be Smith’s top target again. The 49ers O-line have suddenly had a lot of trouble protecting Smith, allowing 13 sacks over the past two games. DE Calais Campbell and rookie LB Sam Acho are the top pass rushers for Arizona and they will look to pressure Smith into quick throws.
Last week marked QB Kevin Kolb’s return to prominence as the Arizona signal caller. Despite a poor first half he helped lead the team to victory with 203 passing yards in the 2nd half and OT. Kolb didn’t play in the first game and will be anxious to keep the winning going. RB Chris “Beanie” Wells (201-916-9) had only eight carries in the first matchup and look for that amount to triple this week. The Cardinals are averaging a healthy 4.5 yards-per-carry and need to be balanced on offense. San Francisco has allowed an average of only 3.3 yards-per-carry in 2011 and has yet to allow a rushing TD. The Cardinals must stick with the running game or they will become one dimensional and a much easier team to defend. WR Larry Fitzgerald is averaging 17.1 yards-per-catch and is too much for any one 49er DB to handle.
ATS Pick
San Francisco has locked up the division but is still in the running for one of the top two seeds in the conference. Arizona is on a hot streak of their own as they try to re-establish Kolb as the starter for their franchise. Look for them to try and exploit the suddenly leaky 49ers pass protection. They blitzed the Cowboys frequently last week and look for them to do the same this week.
Take the Cardinals
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