Brees will need to be sharp this week to cover this spread.
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Saints -8.5
Total: 50.5
Tampa Bay had their bye last week. New Orleans was shocked in a 31-21 loss to previously winless St. Louis last Sunday. The Bucs defeated the Saints 26-20 three weeks ago.
The Buccaneers welcome back RB LaGarrette Blount this week and just in time too. The Saints were run over by power RB Stephen Jackson last week and Blount, like Jackson, does most of his work between the tackles. New Orleans has been susceptible to the run and Tampa Bay needs to run the ball effectively to lessen the pressure on QB Josh Freeman, who leads the NFL with 10 interceptions. Despite their constant blitzing, the Saints have mustered only 19 sacks in eight games. The Bucs have surrendered only 10 sacks, so Freeman should have time in the pocket. WR Mike Williams and TE Kellen Winslow II lead the team with 31 catches apiece but many of Freeman’s picks have been when forcing the ball to one of those two. Look for him to spread the ball around as he spent the bye week analyzing all of his interceptions so far this year.
New Orleans hopes to get rookie RB Mark Ingram (heel, check status) back this week but RBs Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas have been more effective. DT Gerald McCoy (ankle) returns and he will help the run defense. Rookie MLB Mason Foster used the bye to get healthy as well. QB Drew Brees has thrown more interceptions than any other NFL QB since the beginning of last season. He has also thrown 19 TD passes this year and the Bucs have had issues in their secondary. Most of the Saints wideouts lack good speed and this forces Brees to throw into tighter windows. TE Jimmy Graham and Sproles have combined for 100 receptions and Tampa LBs have to be aware of them at all times.
ATS Pick
This is a historically bad spot for the Saints. They are 2-16 ATS as a divisional favorite of 7+ points and are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games hosting the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is also 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog. The loss of New Orleans HC Sean Payton from the sideline has had an effect on Brees that can’t be understated. We look for another Bucs cover on the road this week.
Take the Buccaneers + the points at Bodog
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